floaters

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Following a long summer of capture, marking, and field observation, we have a new tranche of loon data from Wisconsin and Minnesota. The picture in Wisconsin does not change greatly from year to year. There we already had 32 years’ worth of research findings before 2025. But each successive year in Minnesota — where our research began in 2021 — increases our understanding of that population immensely. And with our improved knowledge of Minnesota loons, the status of the loon population across the Upper Midwest is coming into focus.1

Three demographic parameters together dictate whether a population of animals is increasing, decreasing, or stable, These factors are: 1) survival of breeding adults, 2) reproductive success, and 3) young adult survival. Recent measurements have shown us that the Wisconsin population is declining. And we know very well which of these parameters is responsible for the decline. If we compare our growing dataset in Minnesota to the trove of data we have from three decades of research in Wisconsin, we can learn whether or not Minnesota loons are headed in the same direction.

First, let’s look at survival of adult breeders. It should not be surprising that the most important single indicator of population dynamics (i.e. whether a population is stable, increasing or decreasing) is the rate of survival of its adult members. There is good news from the Wisconsin Study Area. The survival rates among territorial females and males both have been stable for the past three decades (Figure 1). This finding implies that once loons reach adulthood, they survive and hold their territories well. The decline that we are seeing in the Wisconsin population, then, must come about because of problems that occur before loons settle on territories.2

Figure 1. Annual survival rates of adult breeders on territories.

What about survival of territorial breeders in Minnesota? From measurements in 2022, 2023, and 2024, it appeared that adult survival in Minnesota might be lower than that in Wisconsin (look at these years in Figure 2, below). However, each year we get a better “read” on these numbers because our sample of loons becomes larger and more representative of the overall population. So the 2025 adult survival numbers are the most reliable ones we have to date. As you can see from Figure 2, there is no evidence for a

Figure 2. Survival rates of adult breeders in Wisconsin and Minnesota from 2022 to 2025. (Sample sizes are shown above each bar.)

difference in survival rates of territorial adults between Wisconsin and Minnesota. Minnesota, like Wisconsin, is seeing good adult survival. Again, this is good news!

Now let’s turn to reproductive success in the two states. Since we learned recently that the silver spoon effect is strong in loons, we know that we must look both at quality and quantity of loon chicks produced to get a good sense of how well a population is reproducing.

First let’s look at quantity. As Figure 3 shows, chick production in each region fluctuates greatly from year to year according to ice out date, severity of black flies, water clarity

Figure 3. Chicks fledged per territorial pair since 1995 in the Wisconsin Study Area and from 2021 to 2025 in the Minnesota Study Area. (Dotted line shows the trend in Wisconsin.)

in July, and other factors. Overall, however, chick production has decreased significantly in Wisconsin during the past three decades. Adult breeders are simply not producing as many offspring now as they did 30 years ago.

While Wisconsin data show a clear decline in number of chicks produced, it is too early to discern a trend in Minnesota. Chick fledging rate simply bounces around too much from year to year to see a pattern. We can say that chick production is at a similar level in the Wisconsin and Minnesota study areas. However, note that 2025 was a banner year for chick production in Minnesota and a poor one in Wisconsin.

Next we need to look at the quality of loon chicks that Wisconsin and Minnesota are producing. Our recent work has shown that chicks that fledge at low weights are much less likely to survive to adulthood and produce chicks themselves than are their heavier peers. Chick body condition has been falling for the past few decades in Wisconsin (see Figure 4, below).

Figure 4. Average body condition (mass divided by age) of chicks in Wisconsin from 1998 to 2025 and in Minnesota from 2021 to 2025. (Trendline shows Wisconsin pattern.)

The five years of data we have on body conditions of Minnesota chicks are not as many as we would like, but the numbers are consistent. Chicks fledge in Minnesota at similar — or even slightly worse — body condition than those in Wisconsin (Figure 4). We can infer that Minnesota is suffering from the same challenging chick-rearing conditions that have plagued Wisconsin (probably declining water clarity).

The third and final piece of the puzzle that we need to understand population dynamics is the survival of young adults. These birds are the breeders of the future that have not yet settled on territories. They range from three to about six years of age.

If you have been following my blog closely, you know that young adult survival of Wisconsin loons has seen the most dramatic decline among the three critical population determinants. That is, adult survival has held steady, and chick production has fallen somewhat, but the return rate of young adults to the breeding grounds has been abysmal — far below what it was a quarter century ago (see Figure 5, below).

Figure 5. Return rates of chicks to the breeding grounds 2 to 4 years after being banded as chicks in Wisconsin. (Data are missing for 2000 and 2007.)

We have been on pins and needles to see if this distinctive and rather alarming Wisconsin pattern is present also in Minnesota. Fortunately, our understanding of young adult survival has grown by leaps and bounds in Minnesota this year. Why? Because: 1) we started banding Minnesota chicks in 2021 and have done so every year since then, 2) most young loons return to the breeding grounds at three or four years of age in adult plumage, and 3) we regularly record identities of these young birds as intruders and loafers within our study areas. Thus, 2024 gave us our first glimpse at young adult survival in Minnesota using the crop of 26 chicks banded in 2021. And 2025 provided an even better window onto young adult survival there, since we could look at the return rate of 64 banded in 2021 and 2022 combined.

What do our findings show so far? In 2021, we banded 52 chicks in Wisconsin. Of these, 7 had returned as of 2025 (13.5%). We marked 28 chicks in Minnesota during 2021, and only one has so far been spotted as an adult (3.6%). For chicks banded in 2022, the numbers that have returned in Wisconsin and Minnesota, respectively, are 5 of 44 (11.4%) and 4 of 36 (11.1%).

These numbers tell a clear story. The percentage of young adult loons returning as adults in Minnesota is well short of that expected in a healthy population (a rate of about 41%). That percentage is also far below what we have seen in the past in Wisconsin (note the return rate in the 1990s and 2000s in Figure 5). In fact, the low return rate of young adult loons in Minnesota closely mirrors the dismal rate in Wisconsin.

In summary, it has taken five years to be confident of how the loon population in the Minnesota Study Area is faring. But our data now show that loons in Minnesota — at least those in Crow Wing and Cass counties, where we work — exhibit the same set of quirky demographic patterns that typify loons in Wisconsin and have set in motion a decline in the overall population there: 1) strong and stable adult survival, 2) poor reproduction in terms of both number of chicks and body condition at fledging3, and 3) a massive and diagnostic plunge in the survival rate of young adults (which are future breeders).

We have work to do.

1Thanks to Sheila Johnston, who took this photo of a molting adult loon on Gull Lake, which is just south of the Minnesota Study Area.

2I know. I just published a blog post in which I mourned the losses of many male breeders in the Wisconsin Study Area. I am still concerned about these losses. But in the long-term, which spans over three decades, adult males and females both have survived well. So I am hoping that the loss of several old, established male breeders this summer in Wisconsin was a blip.

3As noted earlier, it is too soon to tell from our data whether the number of chicks fledged is declining in Minnesota. We will gather those data over time. But we already know that Minnesota loon chicks are fledging in poor condition, just like Wisconsin loons. It is worth noting that the Minnesota Loon Monitoring Program, which has counted chicks across the state since 1994, reports a long-term and statewide decline in chick numbers.

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I love southern California. I truly do. Although it is disconcerting to look outside — or even step outside — and never really know what the season is, the weather is always beautiful here. The beauty of the region pales for me a little this time of year though. Why? Because we get curious, muted springs. True, Orange-crowned Warblers, House Wrens, and Bell’s Vireos have exploded into song. But it is only slightly warmer now than it was a month ago — and barely greener. The spring that I read so much about in the paper each day must be going on elsewhere.

Indeed it is. With ice off of our study lakes in Wisconsin and Minnesota, loons have returned to their territories. Most are reacquainting themselves with their mates of the previous year after eight months apart, foraging to recoup energetic losses from migration, and checking out potential nest sites.

But rest and recovery are not the only orders of the day for territory holders. The few weeks after iceout are a time of great peril. Young loons without territories probe those in their neighborhood for vacancies and weakness. These young adults try especially hard to seize territories where they observed chicks the year before. (Chicks on a territory are like a badge signalling its quality.) Breeders intent on holding their territories must invest considerable effort convincing young pretenders that an attempt to evict them would be costly and futile. Providing ocean conditions on the wintering grounds a few months before allowed them to prepare well for the breeding season, most territory holders do ultimately hold off all competitors and turn their attention to breeding.

Loons are not the only ones scrambling. With classes still in session until May 16th, I am stuck in California for two more weeks. While my Wisconsin and Minnesota teams are prepping for fieldwork, I am completing an endless stream of forms, contracts, online trainings, and other paperwork to help bring that about. On weekends, my wife and I ride our bikes toward the ocean and take in the mild greening and hint of warm weather that mark springtime in this part of the world. Yet a big part of me hungers to be on northern lakes, where spring arrives with a vengeance and loons fight tooth and nail for the privilege of rearing young for another year.

Sheila Johnston’s cool photo from this spring shows her favorite loon, Lena. Lena was a victim of an early-season eviction last May and spent weeks recuperating. We are delighted to see her back this year and re-paired on her old territory. With some luck, she and her mate will raise chicks on Upper Gull in 2025, just like the old days.

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In recent blog posts, I made the point that the course of a young loon’s life is more affected by its early experiences in Wisconsin or Minnesota than by conditions during its first winter in Florida. Winter happenings along Florida’s Gulf Coast do affect youngsters, but the amount of food they receive in their first several weeks of life makes an indelible imprint on their well-being.

One might have expected established breeders to show even greater immunity to winter conditions. Once an adult has claimed a territory, reared chicks to fledging, and survived several trips from the Midwest to Florida and back, what challenge is left that can threaten it? Can’t adult loons begin to “coast” a bit after these achievements? And if so, might the four months spent along Florida’s shoreline simply be a period of rest and recovery from the stresses of territoriality?

To some degree, established adults can coast. Having settled on a breeding lake at the age of 6 years or so, they have surmounted life’s greatest obstacle. Since senescence does not take hold until they are in their mid teens or 20s and since annual survival of loons in their prime is 94%, newly-settled breeders stand a good chance of holding their territories for a decade or more. But long-term ownership is never certain. The simple act of raising chicks exposes an adult loon to territorial challenges, because nonbreeders bent on claiming a territory use the presence of chicks there as a badge indicating its quality. So proud parents in one year pay the steep cost of increased territorial defense — and the risk of eviction — the next.

Recently we have learned an incredible thing. Ocean conditions that loons face during winter — whether they are 8, 11, or 15 years old — can reduce their body condition subtly such that they are prone to eviction from their territories several months later, when they return to the breeding grounds. Specifically, loons that have spent the winter in cold, dilute ocean water are much more likely to get booted from their summer territories than those that spent the off-season in warm, salty water. Here is what those patterns look like.

Fig. 1. Territory holders that experienced cold ocean water during the previous winter are more likely to lose their territory in a battle than those that spent the winter in warm water.
Figure 2. Breeders that encountered ocean water of low salinity were more likely to be evicted from their territories than breeders that had wintered in salty water.

An obvious question is this. Why is warm salty water beneficial to loons? Sadly, the answer is not obvious, although loss of salinity can be linked to increased runoff from rivers into the Gulf of Mexico, which reduces water clarity and can spawn phytoplankton blooms. (Both low clarity and increased phytoplankton are harmful to loons.) The negative impact of cold ocean water is also hard to interpret, but cold water forces loons (and other warm-blooded aquatic creatures) to expend energy just to maintain a high and stable body temperature. Perhaps the energetic hit that loons face in keeping warm in a cold ocean puts them at a long-term disadvantage.

We are not the first to discover that environmental factors in one season can impact animals in another. In fact, such “carry-over effects” are now known in several species of songbirds. Understanding carry-over effects is crucial to conservation, because they reveal the interconnectedness of the seasons. If the quality of a bird’s winter habitat limits when it can migrate in the spring, how successful it is at finding a territory on the breeding grounds, and the number of offspring it raises, then clearly we must take a holistic view to understand avian conservation.

From a territorial loon’s standpoint, poor ocean conditions in winter pose yet another challenge. It is bad enough that raising chicks puts a great big target on your back. We now realize that loons that encounter cold, dilute ocean water during a winter after rearing chicks will face a double whammy in holding their territory the following spring.

Our discovery of carry-over effects in loons might help us understand how the species’ odd system of territory eviction evolved in the first place. Perhaps natural and inevitable fluctuations in the quality of the winter habitat guarantee that some adult breeders will be vulnerable to takeover each year. If so, winter-weakening sets the stage for the evolution of territorial eviction as an effective behavioral strategy for claiming a territory.

We eagerly await the 2025 field season and have a very strong team in both states. However, field costs have mushroomed unexpectedly by a whopping $28,000. As it stands, we are $1,800 short of our goal of raising $20,000 to earn an additional $20,000 in matching funds from the Walter Alexander Foundation. If you are able, please consider helping us cross this threshold so that we can defray most of our field costs. Thanks so much to those who have already given!

The beautiful photo of the male is one of Linda Grenzer’s. It shows the Deer Lake male (B/S,P/R) becoming airborne during a takeoff run. Love that pink band!

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This seems a dark time for loons in the Upper Midwest.

Wisconsin breeding pairs fledge 26% fewer chicks now than they did 25 years ago. Our more limited data from Minnesota indicate low breeding success there as well. (A long-term study by Minnesota DNR confirms that chick production is decreasing in the state.) The decline in breeding success across the Upper Midwest concerns me. Do enough chicks still reach adulthood so that they can sustain the population of breeders?

But, as I have discussed in previous posts, loss of chicks while under their parents’ care is less of an issue than the escalating die-off of young adult loons after they leave the breeding grounds. Survival in this later stage of the life history is down over 80%. Of 99 chicks that we banded in 1998, 1999, and 2000, we had resighted 38 (38%) as adults by 2004. In contrast, we have reobserved as adults only 9 of 155 chicks (6%) banded between 2018 and 2020.*

Of course, these young adult returnees are troublemakers. They loaf on undefended parts of large lakes or on vacant small lakes. They intrude into breeding territories. Their visits force pair members to confront them physically and steer them clear of chicks. If the pair’s hints are not sufficient to drive the youngsters off, they are attacked. Naturally, the more of these 2- to 6-year-olds there are in the study area, the greater the chance that one of them evicts a member of the pair.

But these young loons are also the future. From their ranks come replacements for breeders that die each year. So young adults — warts and all — are essential to population stability.

The huge drop in the young adult population has turned our annual spring census into a stressful experience. In early May our Wisconsin and Minnesota teams race from territory to territory to see which of our marked breeders have returned and which territories from previous years are still occupied. Each year I fear that breeding lakes will be lost because the dwindling young adult population will be unable to fill breeding vacancies.

In truth, we have lost several of our traditional territories in Wisconsin during the past few years. We did not find breeding pairs on Bridge, East Horsehead, Hildebrand, Miller, Oneida-East, Pickerel-North, Tom Doyle, Swamp, or Muskellunge (Lincoln Co.) in 2024. We seem to have lost one of our breeding pairs on Bertha Lake and another on Butterfield Lake in the Minnesota Study Area as well, although our data do not extend as far back there. Still, there has not been a wholesale loss of territorial pairs in the Upper Midwest, which one might have expected from the high mortality of young adults. So while we have far fewer young nonbreeders milling around, the decline in the territorial loon population is, as yet, small.

Thus, the loon population might be more resilient than we had feared. We have long known that the majority of young loons that return to the breeding grounds never settle on a territory. Perhaps the die-off of young adults merely reduces their number to those few that would normally claim territories anyway. It is a hopeful thought!

Meanwhile, my work continues in both states. I am connecting with water quality specialists in Wisconsin and Minnesota in hopes of learning why we are losing water clarity in July, which harms loon chicks. And I am searching feverishly — both on the breeding grounds and in Florida, where most of our birds winter — for the cause of the high mortality in young adults. These are not quixotic quests. I feel that people who love loons in the Upper Midwest will step up and help them if we can pinpoint the factors that endanger their population.

If you would like to support my efforts to conserve loons in Wisconsin and Minnesota, please consider a donation to our 2025 field effort. We squeeze all we can out of every dollar we receive.

* People sometimes ask me, ”Could these missing loons have simply gone somewhere else? Have they gone to Canada?” It is a reasonable question. Ecologists have marked and tracked movements of thousands of bird species as well as many other vertebrates. With the exception of nomadic species, though, territorial animals like loons stick to a rigid set of guidelines with respect to settlement. If it is still alive, a loon will return to the near vicinity of its natal lake as a young adult to look for a breeding spot. (This is especially true of males.)

The featured photo is by Hayden Walkush of the territorial female on Two Sisters-East. This photo is among the 1906 taken by the team this year as part of our study of whether or not loons can be distinguished using artificial intelligence.

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Almost four years ago, I wrote a blog post about the importance of Florida’s Gulf Coast as a wintering area for loons breeding in the Upper Midwest. I pointed out that 75% of loons breeding in Wisconsin and Minnesota winter along the Gulf Coast of Florida from Pensacola to Fort Myers. And I suggested that conditions in Florida were likely to have substantial impact on the loons we see on our lakes in the north.

My thoughts have returned to Florida of late. Why? Because recent findings suggest that the answer to our greatest riddle might be found there.

Followers of the blog may recall that the single most worrisome pattern related to the Upper Midwest loon decline is the mysterious disappearance of juvenile loons before they reach adulthood. In Wisconsin, the survival rate of juveniles to adulthood plummeted from above 50% to less than 20% between 1993 and 2016, as the graph from our statistical test shows.

The problem has gotten worse since 2016. Only 13 of 209 chicks (6.2%) banded in Wisconsin between 2017 and 2020 have returned as adults. That is a ghastly statistic.

What might be the cause of this massive die-off of young loons? We have good data from the breeding grounds. If juvenile mortality were high during this interval, we would have detected it. Death during migration is another possibility, of course. We do not have good data from that period. But it seems implausible that the varied array of aquatic habitats used by young loons along the migration route have suddenly become a death trap for them.

So it was with increased urgency that I turned my gaze to Florida two weeks ago with our juvenile return data in hand. My hope was to take a second, more thorough look at the likelihood of spotting loons two to four years after we marked them as chicks. I had taken a preliminary glance at this pattern 12 years ago. This time I had: 1) twice as much data, and 2) measurements of physical and biological patterns from ocean water along the Florida Gulf Coast that might help explain the decline. Among physical and biological ocean attributes that I could examine this time were water clarity, temperature, pH, salinity, and concentrations of Chlorophyll A, dissolved oxygen, nitrogen, and phosphorous.

What do the data show? After accounting for observation intensity 2-4 years after banding (which has varied during the study) and location of lake where the chick was banded (because juveniles from central lakes are spotted more often), three variables strongly predict the probability of resighting of a color-marked juvenile loon. In order of decreasing importance, they are:

  • Year — The likelihood of spotting a banded chick as an adult has decreased by an average of 8% from one year’s “crop” to the next. This is the alarming pattern that I seek to understand.
  • Body condition at banding — Chicks that are heavy for their age when banded are much more likely to be resighted as adults.
  • Chlorophyll A level in Tampa Bay in December of the first year — Chicks are much less likely to return if Chlorophyll A levels in Tampa Bay were high in December of their first year (see graph below).

Wait! Does this last finding make sense? First, it is vital to understand that Chlorophyll A is a measure of aquatic phytoplankton — the microscopic algae that can make water appear green to us. A very high concentration of Chlorophyll A can indicate an “algal bloom”, which reduces water clarity and can lead to loss of oxygen and release of toxins. Second, it is important to understand that the negative impact of Chlorophyll A on loons occurs only in December of a loon’s first winter. Return rate of juveniles is not associated with Chlorophyll A levels the month before (November) nor the month after (January). Third, we must be familiar the the migration schedule of juveniles. Juveniles reared in Wisconsin and Minnesota typically reach their Florida winter quarters in late November. Stitching all of this together, the negative impact of Chlorophyll A in December on return rate to Wisconsin suggests that many young loons perish in their very first month on the wintering grounds in Florida if algal levels are high at that time. We would expect these neophytes to be at risk during this period, because they must suddenly find new aquatic prey in wholly unfamiliar habitat. High algal levels add another layer of difficulty to foraging, likely reducing the abundance of prey as well as a loon’s ability to find them.

Of course, this is a hugely important finding. This is the first evidence — to my knowledge — where an occurrence in winter affects a demographic pattern detected on the breeding ground. The effect, moreover, is strong. And the pattern is evident despite the fact that Chlorophyll A data represent only one small part of the winter range (Tampa) that is as far as 350 miles from where some Wisconsin loons spend the winter. We can reasonably surmise that the pattern would be far stronger if we had complete data from all along Florida’s Gulf Coast and could match locations of wintering loons up with Chlorophyll A data from their exact location.

Unfortunately, this striking finding cannot explain the steep decline in juvenile survival rate over the past quarter century. Why not? First, Chlorophyll A levels have remained roughly stable in Florida — maybe even falling slightly — across the two decades or so when juvenile survival has been getting steadily worse. Second, the statistical decline in annual return rate among young adults remains strong even after we have accounted for the effect of Chlorophyll A.

In short, many of our first-year loons do appear to die in Florida, shortly after arriving there. But we are still utterly in the dark with regard to the continuing yearly decline in young adult survival. Young adult loons are future breeders — essential to the stability of the Upper Midwest loon population. It is urgent to learn what is killing them. I will keep looking.

The featured map is from Google Earth. It shows lines drawn between where a loon was banded in summer and where it was recovered or spotted during winter months. Green end points indicate Wisconsin breeders and red indicate Minnesota birds.

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Last year I reported precocious territorial behavior by one two-year-old in Wisconsin and another two-year-old in Minnesota. These sightings were extraordinary. Before 2023, we had no record of an adult loon younger than four years of age holding or attempting to hold a territory. Naturally we were excited to see whether those youngsters would return at age three and continue to show assertive territorial behavior well ahead of schedule.

We were not disappointed.* “Junior”, as I reported recently, is firmly ensconced on the Oneida-West territory in our Wisconsin Study Area. Meanwhile, the now three-year-old who seemed determined to settle on Pig Lake on the Whitefish Chain last July appears to have claimed the Ossawinnamakee-Boozer’s Bay territory…..and is nesting! This young Minnesota male** was hatched in 2021 by the Ossie-Muskie Bay pair. So he has settled only a few miles from the territory on which he was raised three years ago.

It is cool to see two loons in different states set the record for youngest territorial breeder simultaneously. This finding suggests that all adult-plumaged loons, even very young ones, are capable of breeding. The result also implies that many young adults would settle and breed if the habitat were not already occupied by older loons.

Could it be just a wild coincidence that two such unlikely settlements transpired at the same time? Yes, it could be. As someone whose job it is to look for patterns, though, I think I see the beginning of one here. We know from past work in Wisconsin that four, five, and six year-old adults are bigger, stronger, and more competitive for breeding territories than two and three year-olds. We know also that the pool of four to six-year olds looking for territories has become depleted by poor breeding success over the past decade. In other words, fewer chicks fledged has led to fewer young competitors scoping out territories to claim. The sudden settlement of two very young adults in Wisconsin and Minnesota suggests that territorial competition has softened to the point that two- and three-year-olds can now compete for and claim territories.

So the excitement of watching territory settlement by very young adults is tempered by the nagging concern that these events are further evidence of a downturn in the breeding population. But maybe I am overthinking it. For now, let’s savor the spectacle!***

* These cool findings are not mine. Hayden and Claudia, our scouts in Wisconsin and Minnesota, found and ID’d each of these adults on territory. Kudos to these two outstanding field workers, who have braved cold, damp conditions to ID returning breeders in both states!

** I initially called this bird a female on the basis of size. It seems I was wrong. Its settlement so near its natal territory makes the loon almost certain to be a male.

*** The featured photo above is by Claudia Kodsuntie, who scouted our study lakes in Minnesota. It pictures the hind 3/4 of the 3-year-old adult on Ossie-Boozer’s Bay. The photo is not beautiful. I like it, though. It shows the kind of quick underwater view of colored leg bands that one often gets during the early census period. So it gives you a good idea of the challenges that Claudia and Hayden have oversome to make this blog post possible.

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The two-year olds have done it again. At an age when most loons are loafing, feeding, staying out of trouble, and just trying to survive, a second two-year-old has shown territorial pretensions. This time, the loon is a female. This time, the territory is in our Minnesota Study Area.

The discovery occurred three days ago on Pig Lake. Although I always smile at its undignified name, I was a bit sad to visit Pig, because neither pair member from 2022 had returned this spring. This fact reminded me of the generally poor return rate in Crow Wing County and my growing concern for loons in Minnesota. So as I gazed through binoculars at the whitecaps on Pig, I braced myself for what more bad news the lake might have to offer.

But among the four loon heads bobbing about in the surf, I was thrilled to spot a banded loon. This bird was one of a pair that dived in close synchrony off of Black Pine Resort. “One of the missing pair members is back!”, I whispered to myself, hopefully. Further observation dispelled that notion. The loon’s right leg showed two colored leg bands. Since all loons banded as adults get a metal band on the right leg, two plastic bands on the right leg meant that I was not watching one of the missing pair members, but instead observing an “ABJ” (adult banded as juvenile). That is, we had banded this loon as a chick.

Two possibilities leapt to mind. This bird might have been a one-in-a-million, 200-mile disperser of undetermined age from the Wisconsin Study Area, where we have been banding adult loons and chicks since time immemorial. Almost equally unlikely, the ABJ might have been one of our first crop of Minnesota chicks banded in 2021. The plot thickened as I compared the size of the ABJ and its mate. The banded bird was clearly smaller. I was looking at a rare female ABJ!*

My efforts to nail the ABJ’s color bands from my solo canoe were not immediately rewarded. I loosely followed the foraging pair, bobbing and spinning about comically amidst the churning waves and boat wakes. Eventually a moment came — forty minutes into my chaotic paddle — when the ABJ and I were carried to the crests of adjacent waves and the bird raised its legs clear of the water. I confirmed that the bird was blue over auric red on the right and red over silver on the left. “B/Ar,R/S”, my notes revealed, was marked as a chick on Ossawinnamakee – Muskie Bay territory on 18 July 2021. So this was indeed a two-year-old female hatched a short distance from Pig.

Like the two-year-old male who is trying to settle on his natal lake in Wisconsin (pictured above in Linda Grenzer’s photo), B/Ar,R/S is special in two ways. She is not only the first chick we banded in Minnesota and have now reobserved as an adult. She is also less than half the age of the previous youngest female ever observed to settle (even for a day) on a territory. (That female was a Wisconsin five-year-old.) Since females settle at older ages than males, her pairing up is even more surprising than settlement of the two-year-old male in Wisconsin in the photo.

What are we to make of this astonishingly early territorial behavior by separate individuals in Wisconsin and Minnesota this year? Nothing at the moment, I think. Two rare events do not constitute a pattern. But those who follow the blog closely might recall that a decline in the population of floaters — mostly young adults not yet settled on territories — is one of the hallmarks of the current downward turn in the Wisconsin population. If we continue to see two- and three-year olds compete for territories in ways they did not 15 years ago, we will have to regard it as another indication of a limited pool of nonbreeders in Minnesota and Wisconsin** — and, hence, further evidence of a broad decline in the Upper Midwest loon population.

*most loons banded as chicks return at three or four years of age. Among those few that return at age two, very few are female. Indeed, about 3/4 of all ABJs we see are males, because males do not disperse far from their natal lakes to breed.

**The logic is simple here. If there are few young adult floaters (usually 4-, 5- and 6-year olds) in a population competing for territories, then even very young floaters (2- and 3-year olds) might be able to acquire one, despite their generally lower competitive ability and aggressiveness.

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History is afoot on Muskellunge Lake. A two-year-old male is making a play for a high-quality territory….which is pretty shocking. 

Let me put this into perspective. Only about a quarter of all two-year-old loons even bother to return to the nesting grounds. The vast majority of all loons of this young age from eastern and midwestern breeding populations are cooling their heels in the Atlantic right now. Some are off of the Carolinas; some New Brunswick. The bulk of all two-year-olds play the long game: they retain the drab grey-brown winter plumage throughout their first two years, stay healthy on a saltwater diet, and postpone any thought of breeding until they acquire sufficient body mass to compete for a territory in their fourth or fifth year.

We have never observed a two-year-old adult male or female settle on a territory. Indeed, we have only once observed a loon as young as three claim a territory — and that was very late in the season and in a vacant space without competitors. (His mate, sad to say, was his mother.)

As territorial intruders, two- and three-year-old adults are nervous Nellies. They sit low in the water while circling with territorial pairs and are deathly afraid of underwater attack. They peer (look under water) and panic dive obsessively. When anxiety overwhelms them, they freak out and flee across the water tremoloing. In short, two- and three-year-olds do not appear emotionally equipped for territory ownership.

But “Junior”– as Linda calls the two-year-old that has settled on Muskellunge — threw out the book on reproductive maturation. When the 12-year-old male that took over on Muskellunge this year became injured in early June after a failed nesting attempt, Junior took possession of the lake and began defending it vociferously with territorial yodels (as you can see in Linda’s photo, above).

For a time, it seemed that Junior would ease into lake ownership without a battle. Yet news that Muskellunge Lake was up for grabs spread fast in the neighborhood, and the last two weeks have seen multiple local males vie for control. One of these males, from nearby Deer Lake, has tried to claim Muskellunge before and is renewing his bid. A second male, this a ten-year-old reared on neighboring Clear Lake, seemed settled on Harrison Flowage last year but is apparently looking to upgrade. 

Junior’s age is not all that makes his story unusual. He is also the only young adult (out of 211 observed so far) that we have ever observed to compete for ownership of his own natal territory. In this he is fortunate; the current breeding female on the lake, who will probably pair with the victorious male, is not Junior’s mother, but instead a female that took possession of Muskellunge last year.

According to Linda’s reports, Muskellunge remains in an uproar. One day Junior is in control and paired with the resident female (or the Bridge Lake female, whose mate did not return this spring). The next day the Deer male has taken ownership and patrols the lake, searching for Junior, who evades him. 

Linda and I are trying to celebrate the oddity of a two-year-old territory owner and not overthink it. But it is difficult to sit back and pretend to be neutral. After all, Junior got his name because he is the son of Clune, the beloved male who settled on Muskellunge in 2009, cranked out 14 chicks during 14 years of territory ownership, and never uttered a discouraging word for canoe nor kayak.

And it is hard not to wonder how a loon as young as Junior even got a shot at such a good territory. Is his territorial gambit an anomaly — a one-time peculiarity that you are bound to observe once if you study a loon population for 31 years? Or must we interpret his premature, longshot bid for territory ownership as yet another indication of the depleted ranks of young nonterritorial loons that epitomize population decline in the region?