In the dream, I am swimming in a tiny lake – a lake so small that two residents on opposite ends of it could converse without raised voices. The lake is completely encircled by cottages. Docks overhang almost every inch of shoreline, looming menacingly over the water and rendering the lake smaller still. The lake, in fact, looks more like a pond hastily dredged by developers for a suburban apartment complex than a pristine aquatic habitat where loons might live. But in the dream a pair of loons swims about the lake with me, investigating future nest sites after having lost their first nest of the year to a predator.

I awoke yesterday with this dystopian scene vividly in mind. The dream reflects, I suppose, my growing unease over the future of loons along the southern fringe of the species’ breeding range. My concern is fueled by an ongoing analysis of the decline in chick survival since 1993.

That analysis has progressed since I first mentioned it. The investigation started as just a hunch — an uneasy feeling that singleton broods were becoming more common. Now, having looked at the data formally in a controlled analysis, I have brought the decrease in brood size more sharply into focus and verified that it is real. There has been a systematic, highly non-random decline in brood size over the past quarter century in Oneida County.

My worst fear took shape in the dream. I fear that growing recreational pressure, shoreline development, and perhaps environmental degradation have conspired to rob breeding pairs of a chick here, a chick there — to the point where the population might be affected. My recent analysis provided a hint about the cause: the decline is far greater on large lakes than small ones. Large lakes, of course, are those most affected by increased human recreation.

It is early still. I have much investigation yet to do, especially testing specific measures of human activity (like fishing or boating licenses issued in Oneida County) to see if they are tightly correlated with chick losses. But for a worrywart – and a vivid dreamer – these are unsettling times.