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I must confess that I had mixed feelings to learn this week from Nelson that the North Nokomis pair had hatched two chicks. Despite having seen scores of newly hatched chicks, I still enjoy watching the tiny fuzzballs bob up and down next to their huge parents while the adults, in turn, move gingerly around their tiny young to avoid injuring or drowning them.

So it was, in one respect, nice to learn that the North Nokomis pair had hatched the eggs from the conspicuous nest I had inspected on 25 July, after following the simple, clear instructions from my research team. But I recall thinking, “Oh geez!” on that date, because only two other breeding pairs of the 120 that we follow were still sitting on eggs. (Both of those, we had determined, were cases of infertile eggs that the pair had incubated for six weeks or more.) I have always presumed that chicks hatching in late July or August have too little time to mature physically, develop foraging skills, and learn to fly in time to make the fall migration.

Now we have the data to look at this question robustly. In other words, having captured and marked 983 chicks since 1991, we can determine whether hatching date is a predictor of survival to adulthood. Logically, there must come a date in late summer beyond which chicks run out of time. However, pairs might face a gradual decline in the likelihood of their chicks surviving migration, or there might be a rather sudden threshold date past which chicks that hatch cannot survive.

If we look at all chicks banded from 1991 on, and calculate how many have made it back to the study area as adults, we learn what the figure

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shows. In short, hatching date does not appear to influence survival to adulthood strongly. At the very least, we can say that chicks hatching in mid-July survive at a rate no lower than those that hatch a month earlier. There is a hint of a decrease in survival from early to late hatches, but it is only a hint.

As usual, our data are not perfect. In fact, we have too few cases of very late hatches to gauge the likelihood of the two North Nokomis fuzzballs (which hatched on about 28 July) making it off the lake this November. On the plus side, 470-acre North Nokomis Lake has one of the highest rates of survival to adulthood in the study area. (The territorial males on Gilmore and Cunard were hatched there.) I would like to think that the gutsy North Nokomis pair will be rewarded this fall with two healthy fledglings. So I am keeping fingers crossed for them.