I always dread ice-out. While I am excited to know that I am scant weeks away from seeing the loons, ice-out now tends to occur during the high-stress period of the Chapman spring semester — and I am seldom ready for the event. As Linda’s photo from the Wisconsin River shows, loons are coming back, accumulating on the river, waiting for their breeding lake to open up enough to permit landing there. Meanwhile, my Animal Behavior students are sweating their behavioral experiments and write-ups.

Let’s focus on the positive of early ice-out for data collection. Rain and warming temperatures mean that ice-out is only days away. Soon we will begin to log the identities of returning veterans anxious to attempt another year of breeding. Since the lakes will be habitable two or more weeks before the historic mean date of ice-out, while many returning birds are still en route from the wintering grounds, we have an opportunity. In theory, adult loons that are in good physical condition generally should be those that can complete the breeding molt early and also migrate early. So the loons that show up first on breeding lakes should be those in good condition. Recent findings have shown us that this group comprises males and females about 8 to 15 years old — the prime of life for a loon. Thus, we predict that the early arrivals are in this age-class. The laggards should be breeders that are either very young — 5 to 7 years old — or very old — 20 years and older. We might expect the territories of such individuals to remain vacant for a week or more after the ice has come off of them.

If age does turnout to be a good predictor of date of territory occupation, then late return from migration could be another source of trouble for an old established breeder. That is, an old territorial bird whose body condition has begun to decline might not only need to worry about being evicted by a young, fit nonbreeder in the midst of breeding; danger might also come from the tardy return of the old bird to its territory in the spring, which could open the door for a youngster to seize the territory, pair with the old bird’s mate, and hold off the former owner when it returns.

I have painted a dire picture. We will have to use the increasingly early ice-outs like this year’s to measure date of return accurately and see if early ice-outs truly destabilize territory ownership. At the moment, I will tantalize you by reporting that breeding success across the population is higher when ice-out comes late. It is speculative at this point, but this pattern might indicate that early ice-outs lead to ousting of old, experienced breeders from their territories, which in turn suppresses chick production of the entire population. If so, I have one more reason to rue early ice-outs!